Intelligence Analysis Should Leverage Facts, Not Fear
A view on our unique role in helping stakeholders calmly navigate permacrisis
There is no shortage of crises or complications in today’s world. Wars. Pandemics. Terrorism. Extreme weather. Civil strife. Weakening institutions. The erosion of our shared sense of reality.
For intelligence analysts, these are the events that drive much of our work. We delve into the twisted knots of complicated headlines and storylines to untangle, as best we can, what is happening, why it is happening, and what it means for our organization.
The results of this work provide concise, unbiased clarity for decision makers to use as they navigate their next move.
But beyond the tradecraft and skillsets making that excavation possible, intelligence analysts are responsible for delivering something just as critical: calm.
Thrust anyone into the foggy swirl of a crisis - no matter the scale - and emotion starts to run high. The US CDC’s “Psychology of a Crisis” talks about various mental states and emotions common in these moments: uncertainty, fear, anxiety, dread, helplessness, and hopelessness.
Volatility is the rule rather than the exception as we journey through this state of permacrisis. It’s something intelligence analysts - and our stakeholders - coexist with daily. We’re all united by a common, underlying anxiety about what’s coming next.
Some moments deliver this anxiety more acutely than others. I’d argue that includes the one we’re in right now. The churning headlines regarding AI and the various, creative ways it might eviscerate humanity are relentless. It’s understandable if we all feel deeply uneasy about not knowing how this new technology might just change everything.
It’s understandable to want to panic.
But instead of matching the hype and emotion of the moment, this is an opportunity for intelligence teams to do what they do best: calmly sift through the information, synthesize what we know to be true, firmly outline what we don’t know, and deliver a straightforward message about what developments mean for our organization.
It’s an opportunity to use analysis as a tool of empowerment, not a facilitator of fear. Good analysis should cool the temperature in the room, measure the pace of the conversation, create space for clear thinking, and cultivate calm out of chaos.
It’s not an easy task by any means. At highly-charged moments involving change or crisis, detaching personal emotion and bias takes intentionality and practice. Compartmenting difficult events can lead to stress on an analyst's mental health, something organizations need to acknowledge and provide adequate resources for. It might be our role to be calm in the face of calamity, but we’re human too - and need to amplify the conversation about the toll it can take. As a Politico article aptly observed, “working in the intelligence community often means living with trauma.”
But with uncertainty here to stay in this chapter of our history books, our profession - both in the public and private sectors - has a uniquely important role to play in sifting through an ever-shifting fearscape to find the facts and turn them into sound analysis about what it means for our collective future.
We’re not here to amplify the hype. We’re here to help illuminate the way ahead.